I take exception to the idea that modern coin issues could ever be valuable and by that I'm not saying that certain issues don't sell for more than or even way more than their face value/issue price, because some have (e.g. the 1995-W Silver American Eagle (≈$3,300) and the 1983-P Washington quarter (≈$30)). No, what I mean by valuable is that the coin carries a premium in circulated grades, especially all circulated grades. Otherwise, all you have are condition rarities.
A condition rarity traditionally is a coin whose value suddenly skyrockets above a certain grade. For whatever reason, the supplies of that coin grow particularly scarce above certain levels of preservation. I will give three examples to illustrate this jump in value:
1924-S Buffalo nickel: F-12, $96 : VF-20, $455 : XF-40, $1,100
1927-S Standing Liberty quarter: VF-20, $285 : XF-40, $1,000 : AU-50, $2,650
It's especially dramatic with the following example:
1921-S Walking Liberty half dollar: F-12, $210 : VF-20, $750 : XF-40, $4,850
However, the 1983-P Washington quarter I referenced? Anything below MS-60 (that's mint state), and it's 25¢. I thus cannot consider a 1983-P quarter valuable if it is only so in uncirculated grades. This trend is starting to appear with the recently ended Statehood Quarter series as well, but with these, only the super-duper uncirculated will do (MS-65 or higher). This allows for some "rarities" like the 1999-D Georgia quarter which is currently $200...in MS-67 (the scale maxes out at 70 and MS-70 would be a flawless, perfectly struck coin) while the MS-65 grade (something you will never find ever in pocket change so don't bother looking) sells for a measly $4.50. So hey, if you were lucky enough to receive such a high-graded specimen in your Mint Set (the cheaters' way to get uncirculated coins...a set I personally wish the Mint would not offer because for me, it is like the collectors' equivalent of a person buying a fully-powered up character for a MMORPG --- you're getting high-grade stuff not by luck and perseverance, but by simply paying for and receiving it from the source), good for you but as for the rest of you, that Georgia quarter is 25¢.
This also applies to silver and gold coins who value exceeds face by virtue of their metal content. They still need a premium over that value for it to count in my eyes. That means, most dimes and halves after 1933 and quarters after 1940 have little value below high level circulated grades. For this reason, they are referred to simply as "junk silver" and sold in bulk as it is not worth the time or effort to grade and sell them separately.
This "race to the top" is merely the result of modern coin production which results in both ridiculously high mintages and ordinarily high production quality. It causes collectors to obsessively focus on minor aspects of coins to enhance their value. They need that little something extra, that something about the coin to be rare in order for them to be happy. On older issues, it's "full diamonds" on Indian Head cents, a "full horn" on Buffalo nickels, "fully split bands" on Mercury dimes, and a "full head" on Standing Liberty quarters. For modern issues, it's "full step" Jefferson nickels and "full bell lines" on Franklin half dollars. This level of nitpicking can lead to some ridiculous values for modern issues (e.g. the otherwise common 1953-S Franklin half in the uncommon grade of MS-65 sells for $65, but that same coin in the same grade but with "full bell lines" sells for $16,000 - no joke). I could never own such "perfection": I would be constantly afraid of damaging the coin ever so slightly through accidental mishandling and absolutely destroying its value. I prefer circulated coins both because I like having coins that were not only made for commerce but actually used in commerce (makes them more authentic don'tcha think?) and I like having coins that are already "damaged goods" so to speak so I don't have to worry as much about them. It would be nerve-wracking to own a coin which could go from $16,000 to $33 with just one nick (and you know that one nick would be on the bell line!).
I don't say these things to discourage coin collecting, just to discourage pointless speculation. As for modern issues, collect them for fun from your pocket change and try to fill up a Whitman folder or two. Let the joy and sense of accomplishment which comes from patience, diligence, and completing a set be your motivation, not dollar signs because you will surely not find them. Avoid high-priced junk from the mint like commemorative coins as speculation. Only buy commemorative coins if you like the design or support the cause. While you might get lucky and be the proud owner of a low-sale coin (which will thus rise in value like the 1995-W SAE and the 1997 Unc. Jackie Robinson $5 gold piece), most likely you will be holding a coin with little chance of even maintaining its issue-price value and this goes for proof and mint sets too. And if you do go venturing into the actual valuable stuff, learn about the coin, numismatics, and grading before you commit your money to them.
I am not satisfied with this entry at all, but am posting it anyway...
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